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Old 03-28-2014, 06:04 PM   #41
Megadog
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

SM: Failed. (Odd, Tracker)
TJ: Did nothing. (Even, Follower)
SC: Failed. (Odd, Tracker)

So yeah, we only know TJ did nothing the night I inspected him (They are in order.)

One of these was clearly superior to the other, it would have been more interesting if it was Follower/Watcher...
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Old 03-30-2014, 04:50 PM   #42
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

So either TJ is much more innocent looking cuz he didn't target anyone (as there were two failed actions by Megadog, it's logical to think this is possible for the mafia too), OR the mafia role has a determined rule on whether they are allowed to attempt a kill and night two was not allowed. Bout all I have to say...
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Old 03-30-2014, 05:15 PM   #43
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

It seems odd to me that nights 1 and 3 "failed" for Megadog, I don't feel like that is the sort of response It ought to have gotten, maybe some sort of shenanigans with the number?

I did mention earlier that I can only activate my role on certain number instances, day two was not one of the days I could activate.

That doesn't necessarily mean the second isn't true either though.
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Old 03-30-2014, 09:56 PM   #44
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Good to know. This means Megadog literally gave us nothing.
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Old 03-31-2014, 05:35 AM   #45
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

I overestimated how much time I would have for the computer again.

If there's a doctor/jailkeeper, I think it's unlikely we have a second town role for revealing alignment. Call me a stick in the mud, but I want to assume normal gameplay and move away from the hypothetical.

Most of this game's posts only give the impression of trying to figure out what is happening, but there are more than just neutral tells.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpaceManiac View Post
The number has only been -3 during the day, and not during a night yet, so night powers which require a negative number can't have been used yet.

While I agree that a negative-number mafia restriction seems imbalanced, for a power role to exist that affects the number so drastically there's almost definitely some motivation to having the number very small or very large (the impression I'm getting is most roles care only about even/odd status).
Can you elaborate on this, because I think you are saying that the mafia should be able to perform most every night, but that there is a third party that has a high number win condition? I'm don't agree that follows from a sudden ppositive to negative change.
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Old 03-31-2014, 05:41 AM   #46
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Quote:
Originally Posted by N64 Lord View Post
I overestimated how much time I would have for the computer again.

If there's a doctor/jailkeeper, I think it's unlikely we have a second town role for revealing alignment. Call me a stick in the mud, but I want to assume normal gameplay and move away from the hypothetical.

Most of this game's posts only give the impression of trying to figure out what is happening, but there are more than just neutral tells.



Can you elaborate on this, because I think you are saying that the mafia should be able to perform most every night, but that there is a third party that has a high number win condition? I'm don't agree that follows from a sudden ppositive to negative change.
I actually have a theory that based on number shenanigans every role is mirrored, so we end up having a tracker and a follower every night, someone here is the inverse of Megadog.

I think space was just suggesting that there is some other purpose to the magic number being high or low in addition to even or odd. And Space is theorizing how it strangely jumped to -3 from 6, especially when we know some people increased the number and some didn't change it, there has to be some reason behind why the number is changing so radically.
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Old 03-31-2014, 06:02 AM   #47
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Don't put words in his mouth.

I think it's too large and specific of a mental leap to make.

We are both interpreting that he said that their is a role that can affect the number differently, and a Reason sic(wincon) for someone to change the number weirdly.
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Old 03-31-2014, 01:47 PM   #48
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Wall incoming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by N64 Lord View Post
Can you elaborate on this, because I think you are saying that the mafia should be able to perform most every night, but that there is a third party that has a high number win condition? I'm don't agree that follows from a sudden ppositive to negative change.
He did not say that there was a role that wins at a certain high/low number, just that there may be a role with a power (or some other motivation) based on the number being above or below a certain value.



Some things that have stood out to me from these past couple posts:

First, the bit from N64 Lord's post that I just quoted: "Can you elaborate on this, because I think you are saying that the mafia should be able to perform most every night, but that there is a third party that has a high number win condition?"

That's a really big jump from SM's post that he was quoting: "for a power role to exist that affects the number so drastically there's almost definitely some motivation to having the number very small or very large"

"Some motivation" != "high number win condition." That's a big jump to take.

Then, when texasjoshua points out the same thing I just mentioned about SM's post, N64 replies:
Quote:
Originally Posted by N64 Lord
Don't put words in his mouth.

I think it's too large and specific of a mental leap to make.

We are both interpreting that he said that their is a role that can affect the number differently, and a Reason sic(wincon) for someone to change the number weirdly.
This just feels really passive-aggressive to me. You bring up a point of discussion from something someone else said, and as soon as someone draws a different conclusion from you, they're "putting words in his mouth?"

SM did not say that there was necessarily a role that won with a high/low number. And this isn't me "putting words in his mouth," its fact. Once again, the relevant text was: "for a power role to exist that affects the number so drastically there's almost definitely some motivation to having the number very small or very large", and "some motivation" is not "high number win condition."

The only "large and specific" mental leap happening here is assuming that SM said that there was a role that won with an extreme number condition. Which he didn't.



The one other thing that stands out to me from these posts:
Quote:
Originally Posted by N64 Lord
If there's a doctor/jailkeeper, I think it's unlikely we have a second town role for revealing alignment. Call me a stick in the mud, but I want to assume normal gameplay and move away from the hypothetical.
A couple things here:

Neither tracker nor follower necessarily determines alignment. The only time it could find someone to be mafia is if it's used on a player the night they kill somebody, and even then, it isn't guaranteed to be accurate. For example, tracking a vigilante the night they kill somebody would give the same result as tracking a mafia the night they kill.

Similarly, a lack of a result on a player doesn't necessarily indicate innocence. Generally, only one mafia will have the ability to actually kill at a time, and as such, a track/follow on a mafia without that ability will give the same result as a track/follow on a vanilla townie (or any role that didn't use their power).

Tracking gives who the player targeted, following gives the action they took. Neither of these gives a guaranteed result as to the alignment of players.

While this might seem a bit like I'm nitpicking, the actual power of a tracker/follower role does lead to something important: for balancing reasons, a tracker/follower doesn't have the same power as a full investigative role, like a cop. Especially not a tracker/follower role that has constraints on how it can be used, such as this one.

What I'm getting at here is that, for balancing reasons, it is unlikely (not impossible, but unlikely) that Megadog was the only investigative-type role in the game. Why is this relevant to N64's post? Because of what follows after he states that we likely don't have another investigative role: "Call me a stick in the mud, but I want to assume normal gameplay and move away from the hypothetical." Personally, I get the feeling that this post is calling for us to play as if there will be no more concrete evidence - that is, to start lynching based on rhetoric and suspicion alone. While this may simply be him taking a cautious stance, I also find it a bit misleading to push the idea that there is no additional investigative role when typical role balancing would imply otherwise.

To clarify - I'm not saying that players should never act solely on rhetoric and suspicion when an investigative role (or the possibility of one) exists. I've commented in the past on how relying solely on investigations in mafia games can often be counterproductive (and it's killed more than one of the games I've hosted in the past). But whenever I see something that seems misleading, there's always some red flags that go off, and this situation is no exception.



Granted, none of these things I've pointed out are overly suspicious (as those of you who've played with me before know, pointing out discrepancies in the little things is kind of the way I play in general), but when we lack much other information, every little detail that can be explored is very important.



Now, to talk about people and things other than N64:
Quote:
Originally Posted by texasjoshua
I actually have a theory that based on number shenanigans every role is mirrored, so we end up having a tracker and a follower every night, someone here is the inverse of Megadog.
Seems very plausible, and it would be a way for the magic number to come into play without it affecting game balance. We would likely need more information before we can be sure this is the case, though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by texasjoshua
It seems odd to me that nights 1 and 3 "failed" for Megadog, I don't feel like that is the sort of response It ought to have gotten, maybe some sort of shenanigans with the number?
My impression of a "failed" result for a tracker is simply that the player in question didn't target anybody that night, though I suppose something like a roleblocker isn't out of the question.

This is a bit older, but it kind of stuck out to me while going back through and rereading the game thus far:
Quote:
Originally Posted by .Blue Dwarf.
I suspect N64Lord, but the evidence I have to support that is pretty much... Non existant. Certainly nothing I'd vote on.
At that point in the game, N64 had hardly said anything (and certainly nothing that would necessarily invoke suspicion). Granted, BD did say that he had no evidence to support it, so his post isn't necessarily suspicious. Could very simply have been an attempt to provoke discussion.
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Old 03-31-2014, 02:04 PM   #49
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Tex interpreted my intentions correctly. It seems to follow that if there are abilities that affect the number drastically upwards or downwards, there are abilities which rely on the actual value of the number somehow rather than just its even/odd status (which is all anyone has said their abilities do). I was conjecturing that maybe the mafia's ability to kill had something to do with it.
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Old 03-31-2014, 02:58 PM   #50
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

I'm certain there must be other roles that can still gather information.
Even if there is no investigator, someone doctored or role blocked the mafia the first two nights.... Though, while I doubt the mafia is tied to only acting on magic numbers I still have to think they must be involved somehow, perhaps the specifics of WHO acts is based on the number, Goon1 acts on evens, Goon2 acts on odds, and perhaps if one dies he assumes the other's ability so he can still act indefinately.


With THAT in mind, and because I'm making wild accusations this game; it could be N64Lord is Goon1, and TJ is Goon2... That theory aligns with what little evidence I have, but it is truly little evidence. It also aligns with MD's findings of TJ having no action, which again is weak evidence at best
As such, I certainly wouldn't vote on it, but that's my current best guess of how things are.


I suspect as more people die, more info will come to light. However, that's a risky game to play with the mafia being able to take, essentially, a free day-kill with the lynch rules as they are.

7 players, I assume there are 2 mafia. So we're at 4/2 now. We lose one more towny at night, that's 3/2, they snipe a lynch that day if we aren't careful and it's over. (Unless a vigilante's magic number aligns, then they'll have just given themselves up and it's game over for them? I don't know. Too many variables to just map the game out yet)


Anyway, point is we can still let today go without anyone dying and be fine, and if nobody dies tonight then we can go again tomorrow too, all the while I'm sure some body (possibly more than 1) will be gathering info.


I think if nobody has any convincing evidence as of yet, we might be best just rolling in to night and seeing what surfaces in the morning.
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Old 03-31-2014, 03:32 PM   #51
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

I agree with BlueDwarf in terms of sitting quiet(Not the me being mafia part obviously), while normally I like to talk more and get stuff done, we likely have enough power roles out there that we can sit and wait to figure stuff out for still another couple times, and if all else fails if we just keep talking and eventually the mafia will slip up and say something dumb.

As long as the mafia is either not killing or risking being detectiviszed we can basically sit till LOL.
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Old 03-31-2014, 04:04 PM   #52
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Few things:
Sonic posits that a failed action might mean no one was targeted: in Megadog's post there was a specific difference from failing and getting no target.

There are 8 people in the game, not 7 putting us at 5-2.
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Old 03-31-2014, 04:12 PM   #53
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Right, I miscounted. I wonder if that leaves room for a third party to come and mess things up.
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Old 03-31-2014, 08:19 PM   #54
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Quote:
Originally Posted by seamonkey View Post
Few things:
Sonic posits that a failed action might mean no one was targeted: in Megadog's post there was a specific difference from failing and getting no target.

There are 8 people in the game, not 7 putting us at 5-2.
When he got "no target" he was following though, the "failure" was only on the nights he tracked. Don't know if that would've made a difference or not.

If there's a roleblocker this game, it's possible that they blocked him the first night, was unable to block (possibly due to the magic number) the second night, then tried again the third night trying to see if him being blocked had any impact on the lack of kills.
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Old 03-31-2014, 10:13 PM   #55
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Quote:
Originally Posted by sonicchaos1993 View Post
When he got "no target" he was following though, the "failure" was only on the nights he tracked. Don't know if that would've made a difference or not.
I doubt it makes a difference cuz it's not really self consistent. Another less common possibility is a hider.
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Old 04-01-2014, 02:35 AM   #56
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Please note that during Night 4, there will be mandatory integration problems to solve.

The spoiler contains an example.

April Fools!

Yeah, no integration. I'm not evil.
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Old 04-02-2014, 02:01 PM   #57
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

The town continues the highly effective tactic of doing nothing.

The Magic Number is currently 4.

It is Night 4. Deadline in 48 hours. Send in actions you want acted.
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Old 04-05-2014, 05:27 AM   #58
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Once again, no night killings. Yay.

Living Players:

Blue Dwarf
sonicchaos1993
seamonkey
Hammer Up!
N64Lord
texasjoshua
SpaceManiac

Dead People:

Megadog - Tracker/Follower

The Magic Number is currently 4.

Day 5! 120 hour deadline! With 7 alive, it is four to lynch.
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Old 04-05-2014, 07:18 AM   #59
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Any theories? This long quiet is getting to me.
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Old 04-05-2014, 12:18 PM   #60
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Default Re: Mathematical Mafia

Just noticing the number hasn't changed...I'm guessing people cancelled each other out, but possibly something weird happened again. I think 1 kill out of 4 nights indicates that it is probable the mafia cannot attempt a kill on all nights, which is (IMO) probably related to said number. If there is no kill on the next night that would probably be confirmation of that.
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