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Old 04-02-2011, 09:03 PM   #1
ElMikkino
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Default What's with this die!?

I have a die (as in dice) that I've rolled many times over, so I know its not loaded. And I just rolled FIVE 2s in a row. That's a 1 in 46,656 chance. Yes, I did the math.
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Old 04-02-2011, 09:30 PM   #2
Megadog
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Default Re: What's with this die!?

For some reason, the first thing I thought of was a totem from Inception...
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Old 04-03-2011, 02:35 AM   #3
hyperme
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Default Re: What's with this die!?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ElMikkino View Post
I have a die (as in dice) that I've rolled many times over, so I know its not loaded. And I just rolled FIVE 2s in a row. That's a 1 in 46,656 chance. Yes, I did the math.
Improbable does not mean impossible.
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Old 04-03-2011, 06:40 AM   #4
Pumpkineater
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Default Re: What's with this die!?

Purchase a single lottery ticket.
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Old 04-03-2011, 08:05 AM   #5
Jamul
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Default Re: What's with this die!?

Well, since a string of 5's or 3's would've been just as interesting as 2's, we can rule out the first roll (any of the 6 faces would be equally interesting if the next 4 rolls were the same number). So it's 4 specific rolls in a row. That's 1 in 6x6x6x6= 1 in 1296. Not very shocking!

In fact, there's a term for it - Yahtzee!
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:05 AM   #6
ElMikkino
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Default Re: What's with this die!?

Hmm, yeah, I did think 46,656 wasn't right when I first did it, since I remembered one time I was in Grade 4 when my teacher rolled four 1s in a row, and he said the result was in the 1000s when my wrong math said it would be somewhere in the 7000s. But, five 2s in a row still is a 1 in 7776 chance.
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Old 04-04-2011, 12:28 AM   #7
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Default Re: What's with this die!?

It's precisely as unlikely to roll that sequence as any other. From the perspective of probability, it's no different than saying "I rolled a 3, 1, 3, 5, 5 in that order." You only notice it because it has a pattern to it.

To take a more extreme example, because that's the kind of thing I do, consider rolling the die 1000 times. Once you've rolled it, you've got a sequence of 1000 numbers. The probability is exactly 1/6^1000 that any given sequence will come up. And yet, after the fact, one of those sequences must have appeared. Thus, something with an extremely low probability is going to happen every time, there's just no way to know which event will occur.
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